Evening Livestock Commentary | January 23, 2019
Cattle futures finished sharply lower and closed it the lower end of the session range. Longs likely trimmed positions ahead of the report and the lack of any cash price advancement helped to exacerbate selling pressure. Cash sales were posted at 124 on a live basis in Nebraska. Dressed sales were posted at 199 in the north, also steady with last weeks average. It seems that the bulk of cash business maybe done for the week with some clean up potential for tomorrow. This is the lowest April futures have been since mid November and almost violates the current sideways trend. The beef demand narrative still may help add support but we will see how the futures digest tomorrows cattle on feed report.
Cattle on Feed Estimates
of estimates of estimates
On-feed January 1 102.2 101.6- 102.5
Placed in December 103.2 100.5- 105.3
Marketed in December 105.2 103.9- 105.8
AM Boxed beef prices were mixed with choice at 215.44 +0.48 and select at 211.06 -0.96 with 69 loads trading
Slaughter came in at 122,000 head today giving a week to date total of 490,000 head compared to 488,000 head last week and 466,000 head a year ago
Feeder cattle finished with sharp triple digit losses and closed in the lower end of the session range. March futures fell to the lowest level since November 25th on follow through pressure and further long liquidation ahead of tomorrow report. Futures did fall to test support at the 100 day moving average but seasonally feeders have potential to remain under pressure over the next few weeks, especially if we get a bearish response to the COF report.
The CME index closed at 144.86 -0.31 on 1/22
Hog futures finished with sharp gains and closed in the higher end of the session range. Recent cash and pork cutout strength is helping to add support especially the prospect of increased demand from China going into mid next month. February futures traded up to resistance at the 20 day moving average and set back. The near term tone is improving but the heavy upfront supply will be an uphill battle for prices.
AM pork cutout prices were higher with carcass at 79.46 +0.72 with 124 loads trading with gains in bellies and loins supporting the average.
Slaughter came in 497,000 head today giving a week to date total of 1,894,000 head compared to 1,990,0000 head last week and 1,806,000 head a year ago
The CME index closed at 61.29 +0.27 on 1/22