WASDE- World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) Report is issued every month. This report details planted acres, harvested acres, yield, and ending stocks. This is a major report as it details the expected size of the national crop, expected demand and how much supply is expected to remain at the end of the crop year. These reports often set the stage for market direction and many times start or end bull/bear markets. These reports start as general estimates or starting points early in the season and grow in importance as more information is know during the key months of the growing season in the July-October reports. For each report, focus on the national yield and ending stocks versus the average trade estimates to get an idea of how the market might react to the report.
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Planting Progress- Planting Progress- The plating progress report is issued during the planting season. This report details how much of each crop has been planted and where that pace stands versus last year and the 5 year average. Having a good start to the growing season is important for large yields. A quick start can be very beneficial and increase the chance for above normal yields while planting delays can quickly cause the market to fear the crop could be in jeopardy. Extended planting delays will often (but not always) result in strong market rallies heading into the key reproductive phases that take place for corn and soybeans in July and August.
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Crop Conditions – This report is issued every week during the growing season. The weekly crop conditions report is generated by the USDA and details the condition of each crop on the state and national level. This is very important as it gives the best indication of the current health and yield potential of the crop. How crop conditions trend will often times be an indicator for market direction. Declining crop conditions will signal that the current crop size may declining as well and require prices to increase in order to slow (ration) demand and ensure adequate ending stocks. Improving crop conditions may signal to the market that the crop is “getting bigger” and prices may need to fall in order to stimulate additional demand and prevent excessive ending stocks. Remember mother nature is tricky and conditions can quickly change!
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Export sales – US exporters are required to report sales for each crop every week. In addition to weekly sales, daily reporting is required when a single exporter sells 100,000 or more metric tons. The export sales pace is a key indicator of foreign demand for U.S. corn and soybeans. Week-to-week the sales pace can be encouraging or disappointing. The important thing to watch in this report is the trend week to week and whether sales continue to surprise or disappoint. Weekly sales reports are not always great indicators of future market direction but should be watched closely especially when sales are large and crop size is small (prices may need to rally to ration demand) or when sales are weak and crop size is large (prices may need to fall to stimulate demand).
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